...A multiple organ failure of the Ukrainian state could make a peace agreement impossible:
A dysfunctional Ukrainian army, regime and state will disable Kiev from concluding any peace process and treaty that U.S. President Donald Trump or others might develop. In fact, the peace effort in which Trump is beginning to enlist Russian President Vladimir Putin will almost surely be foiled by a cascade of two or more of four momentous dysfunctions, collapses, and crises that appear to await Ukraine unless the war ends or a drastic change occurs in the correlation of Russian and NATO-Ukrainian forces. The first two of these collapses, of the front and the army, are certain to occur this year. The latter two – of the Maidan regime and Ukrainian state – could be held off until next year.
The U.S. coup against the president of South Vietnam, Ngo Dinh Diệm, may hold a lesson:
Upon learning of Diệm's ouster and assassination, Hồ Chí Minh reportedly stated: "I can scarcely believe the Americans would be so stupid". The North Vietnamese Politburo was more explicit:The consequences of the 1 November coup d'état will be contrary to the calculations of the US imperialists ...After Diệm's assassination, South Vietnam was unable to establish a stable government and several coups took place.
After it had made itself irrelevant Europe is in disarray. It has no strategy at all. Being humiliated it is time for it to do the unthinkable: Shun NATO, make peace with Russia and seek a strategic deal with China.
Unfortunately such a drastic, but necessary, turn of direction will require a new crop of European (especially German) leadership which is still out of sight.
I guess my own personal caveat to his concluding policy prescription(s) is that he seems to assume that "Europe" is currently a thing. That seems very uncertain to me.